Money Supply Climbs to New High (M2, Graph)

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Mortgage Refinance and Loan Market Deteriorates

Are higher interesting rates effecting refinancing? Is the Housing Market picking up?

Refinancing

• The Refinance Index dropped 23.3 percent to 1998.1 from 2605.7.
• The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Refinance Index is down 19.6 percent.
• The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 54.1 percent of total applications from 59.4 percent the previous week.

Mortgage Loans

• The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 514.4, a decrease of 15.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 611.0 one week earlier.
• The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 13.5 percent. The Purchase Index decreased 3.5 percent to 261.2 from 270.7 one week earlier.

***Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2009.

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Mortgage Interest Rates Go Verticle (Graph)

The negative implications of the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates are to many to list. When interest rates rise house get more expensive. This is likely to slow the economic recovery in housing -- a real negative. Another likely outcome is the end of the refinancing boom.

Let's not forget, the Treasury has been in the markets buying Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities. As we have pointed out for many months, the Treasury balance sheet is exploding with no end in sight. Rates continue to rise against this background.

It should be clear that there is little or nothing that the FED and Treasury can do to stem the rise in longer dated securities.

Here is another little noticed fact that we will be writing about soon. Since June 1, the two year treasury has risen 26 basis points, while the ten year treasury has dropped 4 basis points. This means the yield curve is flattening. Go here for the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates.

My guess is in the next 12-18 months the market will realize that stagflation is the name of the game.

This is the worst thing that can happen to the dollar. The only thing that could stem a run on the dollar is FED tightening.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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• Bond Vigilantes Take over in the Long End (Graph)
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• 60 Minutes -- Cold Fusion

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Questions About Test Your Memory (TYM) for Alzheimers and Dementia

On Wednesday, I published an article about a new memory test for Alzheimer's that can be administered in five minutes. The links to the test and scoring sheet are contained in the original article -- Test Your Memory (TYM) for Alzheimer's or Dementia in Five Minutes.

I am receiving emails from readers and I thought I would address two questions.

One reader asked, "I am curious to hear their opinion, about the level of education for the test taker, and its effect on the validity of the test".

The authors did not specifically assess the effect of education during their testing. In the BMJ article they wrote,

This ceiling effect suggests that education and social class would have only mild effects on the TYM score, but we did not formally assess this. The reason for the low scoring controls was often apparent from the score sheet—lack of interest, reading problems, or a sense of humour.

I will try to talk to researchers and get a clearer answer to this question.

Several readers are asking about the scoring system for the test.

• The control group scored 47 out of 50 (ages 18-70).
• A score equal to, or less than, 42 detects Alzheimer's 93 percent of the time.
• Patients with Alzheimer's scored 33 out of 50.
• The range of scores for patients with Alzheimer's was 9-50.

The main finding of this research

The new "test your memory" (TYM) test is quick to use, examines 10 cognitive skills, and detects 93% of cases of Alzheimer’s disease.

If you would like to read the highly technical paper which was published in the BMJ follow this link -- Self administered cognitive screening test (TYM) for detection of Alzheimer’s disease: cross sectional study.

Have a question, put it in the comments box.

This is the first draft of this article and it will be updated.

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Bob DeMarco is an Alzheimer's caregiver and editor of the Alzheimer's Reading Room. TheAlzheimer's Reading Room is the number one website on the Internet for insight into Alzheimer's disease. Bob taught at the University of Georgia, was an executive at Bear Stearns, the CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. He has written more than 600 articles with more than 11,000 links on the Internet. Bob resides in Delray Beach, FL.

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6,816,000 Americans on the Dole

Sometime you have to look beyond the obvious. Continuing claims for unemployment set a record for the 19th consecudtive week. Nearly 6.82 million American are now receiving unemployment checks weekly. What happens when the benefits run out?

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 601,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 621,750, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.1 percent for the week ending May 30, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 5.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 30 was 6,816,000, an increase of 59,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,757,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,750,500, an increase of 57,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,693,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.238 million.

Source Department of Labor

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

More from All American Investor

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• Ten Year Treasury Yield in Orbit (Graph)
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• Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage
• Systemic Risk Defined--Too Big to Fail
• Ray Dalio on the current state of affairs in the market
• Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion
• 60 Minutes -- Cold Fusion

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Follow All American Investor on Twitter