Friday, June 19, 2009

Money Supply Climbs to New High (M2, Graph)


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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Mortgage Refinance and Loan Market Deteriorates

Are higher interesting rates effecting refinancing? Is the Housing Market picking up?

Refinancing
  • The Refinance Index dropped 23.3 percent to 1998.1 from 2605.7.
  • The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Refinance Index is down 19.6 percent.
  • The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 54.1 percent of total applications from 59.4 percent the previous week.
Mortgage Loans
  • The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 514.4, a decrease of 15.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 611.0 one week earlier.
  • The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 13.5 percent. The Purchase Index decreased 3.5 percent to 261.2 from 270.7 one week earlier.
***Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2009.
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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Mortgage Interest Rates Go Verticle (Graph)


The negative implications of the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates are to many to list. When interest rates rise house get more expensive. This is likely to slow the economic recovery in housing -- a real negative. Another likely outcome is the end of the refinancing boom.

Let's not forget, the Treasury has been in the markets buying Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities. As we have pointed out for many months, the Treasury balance sheet is exploding with no end in sight. Rates continue to rise against this background.

It should be clear that there is little or nothing that the FED and Treasury can do to stem the rise in longer dated securities.

Here is another little noticed fact that we will be writing about soon. Since June 1, the two year treasury has risen 26 basis points, while the ten year treasury has dropped 4 basis points. This means the yield curve is flattening. Go here for the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates.

My guess is in the next 12-18 months the market will realize that stagflation is the name of the game.

This is the worst thing that can happen to the dollar. The only thing that could stem a run on the dollar is FED tightening.
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Sunday, June 14, 2009

Questions About Test Your Memory (TYM) for Alzheimers and Dementia

On Wednesday, I published an article about a new memory test for Alzheimer's that can be administered in five minutes. The links to the test and scoring sheet are contained in the original article -- Test Your Memory (TYM) for Alzheimer's or Dementia in Five Minutes.

I am receiving emails from readers and I thought I would address two questions.

One reader asked, "I am curious to hear their opinion, about the level of education for the test taker, and its effect on the validity of the test".

The authors did not specifically assess the effect of education during their testing. In the BMJ article they wrote,
This ceiling effect suggests that education and social class would have only mild effects on the TYM score, but we did not formally assess this. The reason for the low scoring controls was often apparent from the score sheet—lack of interest, reading problems, or a sense of humour.
I will try to talk to researchers and get a clearer answer to this question.

Several readers are asking about the scoring system for the test.
  • The control group scored 47 out of 50 (ages 18-70).
  • A score equal to, or less than, 42 detects Alzheimer's 93 percent of the time.
  • Patients with Alzheimer's scored 33 out of 50.
  • The range of scores for patients with Alzheimer's was 9-50.
The main finding of this research
The new "test your memory" (TYM) test is quick to use, examines 10 cognitive skills, and detects 93% of cases of Alzheimer’s disease.
If you would like to read the highly technical paper which was published in the BMJ follow this link -- Self administered cognitive screening test (TYM) for detection of Alzheimer’s disease: cross sectional study.

Have a question, put it in the comments box.

This is the first draft of this article and it will be updated.
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Bob DeMarco is an Alzheimer's caregiver and editor of the Alzheimer's Reading Room. TheAlzheimer's Reading Room is the number one website on the Internet for insight into Alzheimer's disease. Bob taught at the University of Georgia, was an executive at Bear Stearns, the CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. He has written more than 600 articles with more than 11,000 links on the Internet. Bob resides in Delray Beach, FL.


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Thursday, June 11, 2009

6,816,000 Americans on the Dole

Sometime you have to look beyond the obvious. Continuing claims for unemployment set a record for the 19th consecudtive week. Nearly 6.82 million American are now receiving unemployment checks weekly. What happens when the benefits run out?

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 601,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 621,750, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.1 percent for the week ending May 30, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 5.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 30 was 6,816,000, an increase of 59,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,757,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,750,500, an increase of 57,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,693,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.238 million.

Source Department of Labor
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Tuesday, June 09, 2009

The Housing and Credit Crisis Explained

This presentation on the Housing and Credit crisis is the best I have seen. It explains everything from soup to nuts.

Each slide contains a graph that is well explained.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.

Once you get through this, you will understanding the current credit crisis in housing, and what to expect in the years ahead.

If you take the time to view and read this you will be fully informed.

Hit the full screen button in the upper right hand corner of the panel below.

T2 Partners Presentation on the Mortgage Crisis

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Thursday, June 04, 2009

Satchel Paige | The Life and Times of an American Legend

Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend
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Reviews

“Having known Satchel when I was a young ballplayer, I’m reminded of the man who took over the game with both his superior pitching and his dynamic personality. This book is a must-read that captures the essence of one of the greatest legends in baseball history, Satchel Paige.”—Dusty Baker, Manager, Cincinnati Reds

"Knowing Satchel Paige is knowing nobody like him. This is a superb book about an outstanding man."—Yogi Berra

“First, make a list of, say, the five athletes of all time you'd want to invite to the house for a night of beer and nonsense. Second, if you haven't picked Leroy (Satchel) Paige, one of the others has to go. (Good-bye Wilt, Arnie, Whomever.) Third, get up the cash for this book and Satchel's there. Larry Tye delivers him in fine, robust prose, living and breathing, riding the buses and breaking off outrageous curve balls and figuring out the complexities of segregated America. Great stuff.”—Leigh Montville, author of The Big Bam, The Life and Times of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Biography of An American Hero, and The Mysterious Montague, A True Tale of Hollywood, Gold and Armed Robbery

“Satchel is a wonderful book. Larry Tye, with his deep research and clear writing, does not just baseball fans but all of America a great service by showing us the real Leroy Paige and why he deserves his legendary status on and off the mound.—David Maraniss, author of Clemente and When Pride Still Mattered

"It takes nothing away from Jackie Robinson to note, as Larry Tye does in this important new book, that Satchel Paige—he of a fastball of historic proportions--is an overlooked pioneer in the integration of baseball, and of America itself. This engaging biography sheds light not only on Paige but on the game and the country he helped change forever."—Jon Meacham

Interview with the Author

Larry Tye’s research into the Hall of Fame pitcher and Negro Leagues icon, resulted in Satchel, The Live and Times of an American Legend.

You seem to have great passion for this subject. Is that accurate?

One of the most exciting things to me about doing books is you get a chance to talk to people who have never told their story before, other than in oral form. These are all great story tellers. The Pullman Porters and the Negro Leaguers. The other thing, is that, for better or worse, if I didn’t tell their story, nobody would. It would die without it being told. (Book jacket cover courtesy of Random House)

Much of that history is gone.

So many of the people, probably of the 200 Major Leaguers and Negro Leaguers I talked to in the last two or three years, a quarter of them are already gone. There is sense of getting to people who have never told their story before and who are old enough, that unless it is told that day, there is a chance that they will not be there tomorrow.

Were you surprised that Jackie Robinson was not well-respected?

It was surprising how many Negro Leaguers that I read about or talked to who had resentment toward Jackie. They all thought they should have been first. The other was that Jackie was not especially good to them. He didn’t go out there saying “I’m one of what could have been 100 Negro Leaguers.” He thought he deserved it. He also disparaged the Negro Leagues generally. He thought it was beneath him. They thought he was too young and unproven. They didn’t think he was a good fielder.

Of course Paige thought he should have been the one.

He would have loved to have had the natural legacy of having been the first. He thought he had earned the right. He thought that was the way it would go down. It would have been a completely different way of how history would have gone down. Jackie was young and had many great years. Satchel was on the way down. It is an interesting dilemma to think about what it would have been like for Satchel to have been first. But there is no question in my mind that he would have traded in everything to be the guy that Branch Rickey picked.

How did you separate fact from fiction?

I found that the Liberty Valance quote was true about Satchel Paige over the years. People printed the legend and they printed the legend partly because that is what Satchel told them and they had neither the time nor the inclination to sort it out because the legends were good. And they printed the legend because it had been printed enough that it had become fact. One of the fun things for me in this project was trying to sort out fact from legend. Satchel did in factor embellish and it got me to wonder why he did.

And why was that?

One was that he was a great story teller, it was natural to him to tell a hundred stories that he had told 100 times to reporters who he knew were not going to catch up on it. At times he would play with people. But he also exaggerated for a reason that I thought was kind of sad. Babe Ruth and Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio had reporters with them everyday chronicling their legend. Satchel Paige knew to get attention he had to go a step beyond and create a bit of mystery.The idea that he to be his own legend builder is a reflection of the Jim Crow era he grew up in and played in his early years.

Would he have been a good pick?

In many ways he would have been a brilliant pick. He would have been entertaining to fans. At the age of 42 he would have had people wondering what they had missed in terms of all the younger years of this guy who was still sensational. Much more than Jackie he would have been a symbol of all those years of segregation.

But you can understand how frustrating he might have been to authority?

Yes. I would rather have had him as my grandfather or uncle than my father. As a father you want someone who is dependable. And that isn’t someone Satchel was. He was somebody who you want to have a grandfather who was a great story teller. And you didn’t care if they were true or not. I would have also rather had him as a friend and as a competitor than as a teammate. Dependability was something he had a hard time with.

How good of a pitcher was he really?

Bob Feller said Satchel was close to in equivalency to him in terms of speed and finesse. I think that Satchel may have been the best combination of speed, finesse and intelligence in spurts like Sandy Koufax at their greatest. And did it so much longer than anybody could have ever dreamed of doing it. He did it so well for so long he will go down as accomplishing something no one ever did.

Source: USA Today

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Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Should Women Be Worried about Alzheimer's ?

Current statistical studies indicate that at age 80, there is a one in five chance of suffering from Alzheimer's disease (20 out of 100).

At age 85, the odds rise to one out of every two (50 out of 100). I call this the Alzheimer's danger zone.

It is well known that women live longer than men. But, I don't think it is well known that healthy women live much longer than healthy men, and live into the Alzheimer's danger zone.
Women who reach the age of fifty without suffering from cancer or heart disease can expect to live nearly ninety-two years (92).**
Men who live to age sixty-five without suffering from cancer or heart disease, can expect to live to eighty-one (81).

I believe most men and woman would find these aging statistics startling. Especially women marrying older men.

I doubt that 50 year old women are thinking or worrying about Alzheimer's if they have not seen it in their family. It seems to me that they should be very worried. Without a treatment or a cure, 50 percent of the woman in the group described above can expect to suffer from dementia or Alzheimer's.

Here are some things that women can be doing to stay healthy, protect their brain, and decrease the chances of suffering from Alzheimer's.

The list.
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Bob DeMarco is an Alzheimer's caregiver and editor of the Alzheimer's Reading Room. The Alzheimer's Reading Room is the number one website on the Internet for insight into Alzheimer's disease. Bob taught at the University of Georgia, was an executive at Bear Stearns, the CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. He has written more than 600 articles with more than 11,000 links on the Internet. Bob resides in Delray Beach, FL.


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**Davidhizar, R. (1999). Caregiving from a distance. Hospital Topics: Research and Perspectives on Healthcare

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