Watch the Season Premier of Dexter Right Now!

clipped from stasiaandbob.blogspot.com The season premieres of Dexter and Californication are up and ready to be viewed. Beat the traffic and be the first person on your block too see these two shows scheduled to premier on September 28. To get in use the password "ladykiller" Here is the direct link Dexter Premier. Same password and link for Californication. Enjoy and let us know what you think. For more information and stuff like this subscribe to our blog via email or feed.

Watch the Ryder Cup Live on the Internet

clipped from efhutton.blogspot.com Use this direct link 37th Ryder Cup!

Financial Meltdown--Where there is Smoke, there is Fire

At dinner he described the situation to me. He said, “Where there is smoke there is fire”. He went on to explain that any time a major financial institution gets in trouble you could draw a circle around its location and expect the problem to spread to any other financial institution in a 150 mile radius (keep in mind this was the 1980s and before the Internet). He went on to explain the interconnectivity of financial institutions in a geographic proximity....His trip and fact finding mission convinced him that there was going to be a real financial crisis in Texas and that it would likely devastate the major banks and savings and loans. This was a very unpopular stance that cost him his job....It also was the catalyst of a stock market crash in 1987....I am reminded of other sayings that I heard early in my career on Wall Street—“never try and catch a falling knife”. I find myself thinking right now—“Cash is King”.

Financial Meltdown--Where there is Smoke, there is Fire

Back in the 1980s I learned an important lesson. At the time, I was with Bear Stearns and working in their Dallas, Texas office. The head of credit came to Texas to visit the state’s major banks and Savings and Loans to discuss their financial statements. Specifically he was trying to get a handle on their financial viability. There was a growing concern about the quality of credit and soundness of financial institutions in the southwest and California. The head of credit spent a couple of days in Dallas and Houston talking to the CFOs of these banks. Late in day, at the end of the trip, I saw him sitting alone in the office and asked him what he was doing. He informed me he was done but was not scheduled to fly out until the next morning. I saw this as an opportunity to “pick” his brain and learn something. So, I invited him out to dinner.

At dinner he described the situation to me. He said, “Where there is smoke there is fire”. He went on to explain that any time a major financial institution gets in trouble you could draw a circle around its location and expect the problem to spread to any other financial institution in a 150 mile radius (keep in mind this was the 1980s and before the Internet). He went on to explain the inter connectivity of financial institution is a geographic proximity. His trip and fact finding mission convinced him that there was going to be a real financial crisis in Texas and that it would likely devastate the major banks and savings and loans. This was a very unpopular stance that cost him his job. At the end of the day he was right. Both of the major banks in Dallas failed (Republic and First Interstate) and all of the major S and L’s in Texas failed (Sunbelt and Bright Bank to name two). This resulted in the formation of the Resolution Trust Corporation a government agency set up to dispose of the massive amount of defaulted loans owned by these financial institutions. It also was the catalyst of a stock market crash in 1987.

For years I have been telling my friends that the derivatives and swaps markets would turn out to be the equivalent of the savings and loan fiasco but on a scale that could never be imagined. Let me ask you, do you know anyone that predicted Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG would go up in smoke? That Merrill Lynch would be offered at a fire sale? Have you heard prior discussions about the inter connectivity of all these financial institutions? Are they within a 150 mile radius?

AIG, the next to go, is a good example of the direness of the current situation. AIG has been racking up enormous profits for a very long time. Just last week they were considered to be solvent. They are loaded with cash. They are claiming $1,000,000,000,000 in assets (Trillion). They operate world wide. Now if you ask AIG they will tell you their problem is not a solvency issue it’s a liquidity issue. It seems that the financial community is no longer buying this argument and no one is willing to stand up and throw money at the problem. AIG does not have the necessary assets to collateralize the $75 billion in loans it needs right now to keep operating. If they go down someone will be on the hook for the insurance side of the business. I bet you thought as an insurance company there were being regulated. Partially true but this does not include the part of the business that is all wrapped up in the credit default swaps market and other derivatives designed to leverage the balance sheet and create “monster” profits. It appears the Fed and government regulators have finally decided that bailouts aren’t working and decided to say no to Lehman and AIG. Lehman is bankrupt and it appears that AIG will declare bankruptcy soon. The too big fail rule is no longer in effect.

It would be foolish to believe that once AIG goes over the cliff it will bring an end to the financial crisis we are seeing today. You should be thinking of the inter connectivity of AIG and all the counterparties they are doing business with AIG worldwide. Companies doing business with them will get wounded, maybe mortally wounded. What looked like a US problem is now a global problem. This will spill into financial markets world wide.

It appears it is finally being recognized that this is not smoke, it’s a FIRE. It appears that “too big to fail” is no longer a workable strategy to fix the problem. It appears the reality of the credit swaps derivatives market is finally being recognized. It’s likely that much of this paper is worthless or only worth cents on the dollar. This financial crisis is not likely to go away over night. There is more to come before all this “paper” can get unwound or find a home. In the interim there is an enormous risk in the stock and other financial markets.

The Fed will address this issue by adding massive liquidity to the markets. The world’s central banks will do the same. It is the right thing to do. But, it is a short term fix that is like prescribing an aspirin for a major infection. It might lower your fever but it won’t cure your illness.

In closing, I am reminded of other sayings that I heard early in my career on Wall Street—“never try and catch a falling knife”. But, right now I find myself thinking—“Cash is King”.

Small (Car, House) Is Beautiful

I think everyone should have at least on tiny house. Might be a good idea for all of us living on the Atlantic and Gulf coast. When you run you need somewhere to go.

clipped from dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com One is a report on the Wheels blog by my friend Jim Motavalli about the possible rebirth of the “air car,” a vehicle that runs on compressed air and a small amount of fuel to run a heater that boosts its range (it is said to get the equivalent of more than 100 miles per gallon when you account for the energy it takes to compress the air). There’s lots more at the link above and in a story on the pneumatic-car technology written by Jim in 2000. Another is a story about tiny houses, which resonated particularly because on Tuesday night I went to an art show in Beacon, N.Y., organized by friends, including the sculptor Simon Draper, who are building tiny free-standing artists’ “habitats.” The Times story, by Steven Kurutz, descrbes a growing “small house movement Below is a video showing Simon Draper building a tiny artist’s shed (set to music by the songwriter Dar Williams, for whom he’s also building a similar creative nook).

WHAT PEOPLE WILL DO FOR NEIL DIAMOND TICKETS

I was surfing around trying to figure out how to get some traction for my blog, The Alzheimer's Reading Room. Stasia sent me the link to shankman.com so I decided to see if this dude could help. I looked down his blog page and bumped into this video. I figured why not.

Watch to the end like he says. I'm still laughing.

clipped from shankman.com Congrats to Michele Leiberman, who embarrassed herself in front of 21,000 people to get the extra Neil Diamond tickets for Sunday night’s concert in Philly. Be sure to watch to the end - It’s quite funny. Enjoy the show, Michele!

Experts Confirm Open Water Circling Arctic

There have been some breathless headlines in the last few days about the North Pole’s being an “island” for the first time in 125,000 years.

clipped from dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com [UPDATE 9/6: The National Ice Center on Friday said that a navigable passage has opened through sea ice along the entire Russian Arctic coast, although the center added that patches of dangerous thick ice still pepper the area. In a statement, the center said: "This is the first recorded occurrence of the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route both being open at the same time." The full statement is below in the comment string. Here's an animation loop of the retreating sea ice.]

Storm Warning: Ike’s Impact Could Go Far Beyond Hurricane Season

Instead of ramping up production to over 2 million barrels per day as once dreamed by the Departments of the Interior and Energy, Gulf of Mexico production is likely to fall to a low of a million barrels per day by 2013—a third lower than the region’s production prior to the 2005 storm season.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com The real problem is that thanks to hurricanes, the Gulf of Mexico will never live up to its promise as a mother lode of U.S. domestic oil production, leaving the country even more vulnerable to imports. Then the question becomes—imports from where? That’s the argument laid out in a new report from Jeff Rubin at Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets, the guys who earlier this year projected $200 oil. Three years after Hurricane Katrina, the Gulf still hasn’t recovered its pre-2005 production levels, CIBC notes. Thanks to rapid production declines at existing fields and huge delays getting new fields operational, official U.S. government forecasts for the Gulf’s role in U.S. oil production are wildly overblown, Mr. Rubin says:

New “Green” Designation Available for Realtors

Take the three day course and become a green specialist.

clipped from blogs.wsj.com A new tool is now available for investors looking to buy a so-called “green” building, a property that has environmentally-friendly features like energy and water efficiency and that produces minimal pollution and waste. A new program instituted by the National Association of Realtors(R) has begun certifying brokers as green specialists. Brokers can earn the designation from NAR’s Green Resource Council by taking three days of courses or completing the program online at their own pace.

Hanna Track

Could be bad news for us. Our town Delray Beach,Florida is in the current track of Hanna. Time to start tying down the loose ends.

clipped from www.nhc.noaa.gov