Wednesday, April 30, 2008

$6,000,000,000 in housing wealth up in smoke

That is more then a day's pay for certain.
A Washington think tank is warning that housing prices are falling at an accelerating level, destroying wealth at a pace that will cost the average homeowner $85,000 in lost wealth this year alone.
The projections by the Center for Economic and Policy Research are based on the numbers in Tuesday's Case-Shiller home price index, which showed accelerating price declines in most big cities.
The annual rate of price decline over the last quarter was 24.9% in the 20-city index and 25.8% in the 10-city index
the center said in its Housing Market Monitor today.
the rate of price decline in the 20-city index would imply a loss of almost $6 trillion in real housing wealth over the course of the year
The CPER says prices are falling so rapidly that the bubble will be gone by the end of 2008, but the loss of housing wealth will be massive.
Peter Viles
Peter Viles, senior producer for Real Estate at LATimes.com
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The Allure of the Forever Stamp

On May 12 the price of a stamp is rising by one cent. (a 2.4 percent increase). Right now you have the opportunity to lock in the 41 cent price forever. Is there any doubt, given the cost of gasoline, that the price will be rising again soon? This might rank as one of the best investments opportunities for businesses in a long time.

The stamp is quite handsome as you can see.
Risky investments and rising prices seem to be everywhere these days
For the past year, branches have been selling “The Forever Stamp” for 41 cents each
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“The stamp will be good for mailing one-ounce First-Class letters anytime in the future — regardless of price changes,” the agency promises.
As the penny increase of May 12 nears, the forever deal is proving irresistible to millions of Americans, according to today’s news release:
In the past several weeks, Postal Service customers have been buying Forever Stamps at a rate of about 30 million per day, bringing the amount sold to more than 6 billion since they were first offered.
The Associated Press further detailed the climb, reporting forever stamp sales of $267,696,023 in March, $207,900,132 in February and $115,303,031 in January

When the standard stamp switches to 42 cents, so will the forever version, thus commencing a new round of forever stamp stockpiling.

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The World's Biggest Clean-Energy Projects

Use the links to read the full story and to view the pictures and descriptions of the biggest clean energy projects.
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Monday, April 28, 2008

Monday, April 21, 2008

eSolar scores $130 million from Google, other investors

Solar power plant builder eSolar has raised $130 million from Google’s philanthropic arm, Google.org, and other investors.
Sunday night as Fortune’s Brainstorm Green conference
The other investors include Idealab and Oak Investment Partners
eSolar could help break the logjam that has put Big Solar on the slow track in California.
“We just completed tests at our test site this week and we will be able to produce electricity that is competitive with coal,” said an animated Gross Sunday evening.
That is the Holy Grail of renewable energy
eSolar has been operating in stealth mode but Gross shared details of the company’s technology and how it intends to produce greenhouse gas-free electricity so cheaply
use fields of mirrors to focus the sun’s rays on a tower containing a water-filled boiler
The resulting heat will create steam that will drive an electricity-generating turbine
The tipping-point innovation
mirrors and the software that controls them as well as the modular design of the power plants
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Friday, April 18, 2008

The foreclosure 'discount'

This is as good an example of the nuttiness in housing that you will ever see. $640,000 for a 2 Bed, 1 Bath, 1,054 Sq. Ft. house, on a 5,000 sq ft. lot built in 1951.
Peter Viles at the LA Times has put together a collection of foreclosure listings in LA.
Viles features one house on his blog L.A. Land: The foreclosure 'discount': 45% in Glassel Park. Check it out! Here is another:
LA Foreclosure Property
FORECLOSED: GLENDALE

3732 Mayfield Ave., Glendale 91214

Agent's description: Bank-owned. Sold for $640,000 in 2007. Beautiful remodeled house on zero traffic tree lined street. Raised foundation, refinished hardwood floors, newer roof ... private yard.

• Sales history (from PropertyShark.com): Sold for $640,000 in February 2007.

• Current listing price: $449,900

• Discount from sales price: 29.7%
Note that the discount is to the asking price for the REO.
Here is the listing at Realtor.com. This is a 2 Bed, 1 Bath, 1,054 Sq. Ft. house, on a 5,000 sq ft. lot built in 1951.
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So spreadable it’s incredible

A new paper by John Taylor and John Williams takes on the issue of which spread to look at, and why. They look at the OIS-Libor spread, which as they say gets the pure expectations effect:

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They also look at the spread between Libor and interbank loans secured by collateral, which would get at any further fears about default (the reason I have tended to look at the TED spread). Their picture shows why the Fed prefers the OIS spread: secured loans have historically been noisy, due to “technical factors such as tax considerations and collateral delivery
glitches.” But FWIW, this spread looks even worse than OIS:

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Taylor and Williams aren’t too happy with the results of Fed interventions so far.

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Maybe Obama is on to something....

from Andrew Gelman:
Church attendance and income by state:
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Notice the cluster of poor Southern states at the upper left, which accounts for most though not all of the relationship.

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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Understated spreads?

The WSJ has an interesting, slightly scary article about LIBOR. It includes a nice chart showing the three waves of the financial crisis as indicated by the TED spread, and the failure of even the Fed’s huge interventions to bring things back to normal:

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But the big news in the WSJ piece is that LIBOR may be higher than reported, and the spread even worse than it looks, because banks aren’t honestly reporting the interest rates they have to pay:

The concern: Some banks don’t want to report the high rates they’re paying for short-term loans because they don’t want to tip off the market that they’re desperate for cash. The Libor system depends on banks to tell the truth about their borrowing rates.

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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Study Suggests GAMMAGARD LIQUID May Target the Primary Pathway Involved in Alzheimer's Disease


My mother suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Today I published an article on the Alzheimer's Reading Room weblog about recent developments with GAMMAGARD. Baxter is moving to a phase three clinical trial that should prove interesting. If you are investing long term you might want to familiarize yourself with these recent developments. I'll leave it to you to decide the merits and the potential opportunity.

You can read the article by following this link.

Study Suggests GAMMAGARD LIQUID May Target the Primary Pathway Involved in Alzheimer's Disease

Kobe Bryant Jumps Over Car (Aston Martin)

Do you think you can do it? Would you try?
clipped from www.youtube.com
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Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

clipped from www.ft.com

Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world’s biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand.

The warning helped on Tuesday to push crude oil prices to a fresh all-time high above $112 a barrel, threatening to stoke inflation in many countries.

Leonid Fedun, the 52-year-old vice-president of Lukoil, Russia’s largest independent oil company, told the Financial Times he believed last year’s Russian oil production of about 10m barrels a day was the highest he would see “in his lifetime”. Russia is the world’s second biggest oil producer.
Mr Fedun compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically

The trend, however, has turned, with supply dropping below year-ago levels for the first time this decade, according to the International Energy Agency, the energy watchdog.

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We play a round at Augusta; what's your dream course?

clipped from www.usatoday.com
USA TODAY golf writer Steve DiMeglio, who plays to an 8 handicap, lived out a dream Monday by playing 18 holes at Augusta National Golf Club, the home of The Masters.

After winning a lottery — the club holds a drawing for members of the news media covering The Masters — I was rolling down Magnolia Lane on a sun-splashed Monday morning to play the Cathedral in the Pines where golf deities from Bobby Jones to Tiger Woods have worked their magical craft.

LET US KNOW THE BEST COURSES YOU'VE PLAYED AND THOSE YOU HAVE PUT ON YOUR "TO-PLAY BEFORE YOU DIE" LIST BELOW.
Hogan Bridge, shown April 7 during practice for The Masters, stands between Nos. 11 and 12.
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Monday, April 14, 2008

Baghdad Life

clipped from blogs.wsj.com
Baghdad Life
Violence since the start of the war in 2003 has forced millions of Iraqis to leave behind their homes and properties in quest of a safe haven. See an interactive map examining where they're living now, and why they chose the places they did.
[Iraq]
See an interactive map of day-to-day events in Iraq, including insurgent attacks.
View an updated tally of military deaths, based on the Associated Press's count.

The White House has released two reports on the Iraqi government's progress on 18 political, military and economic goals. The latest assessment gave the Iraqis satisfactory marks on nine benchmarks, not satisfactory marks on seven and mixed reviews on two issues.

Assessment: Summary | Full ReportSept. 14, 2007

Assessment: Summary | Full ReportJuly 12, 2007

[White House]
clipped from blogs.wsj.com
blog_curfew_art_257_20080411195847.jpg
An Iraqi policeman talked to teenage boys on the empty streets of Baghdad during the curfew Wednesday. Photo: Associated Press
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Friday, April 11, 2008

Etanercept (Enbel) in Action, see Alzheimer's patient's memory come alive (Video)

To watch the video on how this works with Alzheimer's patients click here The Institute for Neurological Research
To read my previous detailed post on this topic click this link 'Instant' Alzheimer's Drug Claim, Enbrel (Etanercept)
Read more about Alzheimer's at The Alzheimer's Reading Room
One of the videos shows how the treatment affected 82-year old Marvin Miller. Miller can be seen muttering incoherently in response to questions from a nurse. He can't name objects like a pencil or a bracelet.
Miller is then given his first etanercept injection, and according to the video, five minutes later he recognizes and embraces his wife when she comes up to him. Mrs Miller said he had not done this for years, because until that moment he did not know who she was. She appears visibly shocked by her husband's improvement.
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