Runaway health care costs — we’re #1!

clipped from krugman.blogs.nytimes.com The latest Trustees’ reports from Social Security and Medicare show, once again, that there is no such thing as Socialsecuritymedicareandmedicaid. Social Security, the subject of thousands of demands that we get “serious” and cut benefits, is doing relatively well. The real problem lies in health care costs. I am, of course, a big proponent of health care reform. But is there any reason to think that reform would curb the growth of costs? Well, I was browsing some of the charts at CMS, and thought I’d share some information from Chart 2.1. This table shows health care spending as a percentage of GDP in some major countries, 35 years ago and recently: Everybody knows that the US spends much more on health care than anyone else What I didn’t realize was just how clearly the evidence shows that the rising trend is steepest in the US. We have the biggest increase as well as the highest level. We’re #1!

Big belly in middle age triples risk of dementia

clipped from iamanalzheimerscaregiver.blogspot.com My mother has visceral fat. At her age it could be life threatening. There is no doubt this is a contributing factor to her Alzheimer's Having a large belly in middle age nearly triples the risk of developing dementia Researchers measured the abdominal fat of 6,583 people age 40 to 45 in northern California and some 36 years later 16 percent had developed dementia Those who were overweight or obese but did not have a pot belly had an 80 percent increase in the risk of dementia compared to people with a normal body weight and abdominal fat level The risk increase jumped to 230 percent among overweight people with a large belly and 360 percent among the obese with large abdomens. "Where one carries the weight -- especially in midlife -- appears to be an important predictor for dementia risk," Whitmer said. "These findings imply that the dangerous effects of abdominal obesity on the brain may start long before the signs of dementia appear."

Real Case-Shiller House Price Index

Looking at housing prices in "real" inflation adjusted terms gives a better picture of the situation.

clipped from calculatedrisk.blogspot.com Looking at the Case-Shiller house price indices in real (inflation adjusted) terms give us an idea of how much further house prices might fall. . This graph shows the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller indices for San Diego, Chicago and the composite indices for 10 and 20 cities. (I'd add more cities, but the graph is too messy!) Looking at this graph, I'd guess prices have fallen somewhat less than half way (in real terms) to the eventual bottom. Of course, more inflation means less prices need to fall in nominal terms. Also look at the length of the housing bust in the early '90s. It took over six years from peak to trough in some cities. If this bust takes the same amount of time, prices will not bottom in some cities until 2012 (or there about).

Rubin: ‘A Lot Of Trouble Could Lie Ahead’

clipped from blogs.wsj.com Appearing Friday night on Bloomberg’s “Political Capital” television program, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin called for quick action to address surging home foreclosures “I think – it clearly has undesirable side effects; it has moral-hazard effects; it has bailout effects. On the other hand, I at least think that while we could get through this without substantial additional trouble, the risks are high enough or great enough where I think it should be very, very seriously considered.” I think there’s also a very real possibility that a lot of trouble could lie ahead. And at least my view, since we’re in uncharted waters, and I don’t think there’s a way to make a probabilistic judgment about where you are in that spectrum, I think we need to take these risks very seriously and I think that we should – from a policy perspective – take whatever measures we can find that we think are sensible to try to reduce that risk,” Mr. Rubin said.

'Speak English' sign at Philly cheesesteak joint ruled legal

clipped from blogs.usatoday.com If you ever find yourself at Geno's Steaks in Philadelphia (as We often did many years ago), you might be in for a political fight if you order a carne asada con queso or le bifteck avec fromage. The city's human relations commission has ruled that a "speak English when ordering" sign does not discriminate against people who don't speak the language. Proprietor Joey Vento argued that the sign at his South Philly cheesesteak stand was a political statement and that no one was ever denied service. He called it "a good victory." "The bottom line is that I didn't do anything wrong," Vento, 68, told The Philadelphia Inquirer. "They made me famous throughout the world," Vento said from his home in New Jersey. "I'm way ahead of the game. I became a hero. I've got to thank them for that."

Cheney Unconcerned by Iraq War’s Unpopularity

clipped from thelede.blogs.nytimes.com Vice President Cheney, already a lightning rod for critics of the Iraq war, seemed likely to ruffle more feathers today with remarks he made to a TV interviewer as the nation marked five years of war in Iraq. After Ms. Raddatz asked about the economy — which he said was in “a rough patch,” not a recession — the subject turned to the deep unpopularity of the Iraq war. Here’s a transcript of the exchange, released by the network: Raddatz: Two-third of Americans say it’s not worth fighting. Cheney: So? Raddatz: So? You don’t care what the American people think? Cheney: No. I think you cannot be blown off course by the fluctuations in the public opinion polls. There has, in fact, been fundamental change and transformation and improvement for the better. That’s a huge accomplishment. The network has posted video of the exchange online. their public remarks have rarely been so tersely dismissive of the strongly held views of many Americans about the conflict.

Where is Iraq's oil money going?

clipped from www.cnn.com Two senators are asking congressional investigators to look at Iraq's oil revenues and see if the war-ravaged nation can pay for its own reconstruction, an effort that has been bankrolled to this point mostly by U.S. taxpayers. Government Accountability Office that Iraq has "tremendous resources" in banks worldwide but is doing little to improve security and reconstruction efforts. We believe that it has been overwhelmingly U.S. taxpayer money that has funded Iraq reconstruction over the last five years, despite Iraq earning billions of dollars in oil revenue Using numbers from the U.S. State Department and Iraqi Oil Ministry, the senators said Iraq hopes to produce 2.2 million barrels of oil a day this year. Weekly averages suggest that the number has climbed as high as 2.51 million barrels a day. That kind of oil production could earn Iraq a projected $56.4 billion this year we believe that Iraq will accrue at least $100.0 billion in oil revenues in 2007 and 2008

Employers Pick Workers’ Pockets on Health Insurance

That misunderstanding is called the “myth of shared responsibility” by Ezekiel Emanuel, the ethics guy, and Victor Fuchs, the money guy, in a commentary in JAMA. They explain that the cost of health insurance comes not from employers’ profits but from employee wages. Employers adjust for rising health care costs by essentially docking pay, and “the increasing cost of health care has resulted in relatively flat real wages for 30 years,” they write.

Employers Pick Workers’ Pockets on Health Insurance

To those of you who have health insurance through your job, a bioethicist and an economist pose this question: Who do you think pays for your health coverage?

Most people who get insurance at work believe that it’s the boss. But the notion that employers really pay for insurance for their employees simply isn’t true.

That misunderstanding is called the “myth of shared responsibility” by Ezekiel Emanuel, the ethics guy, and Victor Fuchs, the money guy, in a commentary in JAMA. They explain that the cost of health insurance comes not from employers’ profits but from employee wages. Employers adjust for rising health care costs by essentially docking pay, and “the increasing cost of health care has resulted in relatively flat real wages for 30 years,” they write.

Why does the myth matter? Emanuel says that people’s belief that they’re getting a free benefit is a big reason why they are resistant to a major overhaul of the health care system. But employer-based health care is economically inefficient, Emanuel tells the Health Blog. A substantial chunk of the money goes to pay for things that have nothing to do with health care, such as underwriting, sales and marketing.

Uwe Reinhardt, a Princeton health economist, likens the employer-based health insurance to a garden party where a very slick pickpocket steals your wallet and then buys you roses and chocolates. “You’d be very grateful,” Reinhardt tells the Health Blog. Employers “are pickpockets who very skillfully take it out of your paycheck. Then they say, ‘Now genuflect.’ ”

A system with a common, government-levied tax and a voucher-based private delivery system makes better economic sense, some economists believe. “It would be much clearer that as costs increase, people will ask more carefully, ‘Are we getting something that’s worth it?’ ” Emanuel says. If someone else is taking care of the restaurant check, “you don’t ask so clearly what is this costing. If, on the other hand, you’re paying the bill, you ask more critical questions.”

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