Monday, November 26, 2007

6,000 apply for 300 Wal-Mart jobs

Is this a reflection of the state of the economy?
clipped from www.cleveland.com
As the world's largest private employer, Wal-Mart is
used to being greeted by large numbers of applicants almost
every time it opens a new store.
But the 6,000-plus people who applied for jobs at the new
Supercenter in Cleveland's Steelyard Commons took
everyone, even Wal-Mart, by surprise.
When thousands of people compete for a few hundred ordinary
jobs, trend watchers say it's an indication not only of
a less-than-stellar economy but also of a workforce short on
marketable skills.
The huge number of applicants wouldn't have caught
anyone's eye had these been skilled, high-paying jobs,
the types of positions that thousands of people always seek.
It could have been worse. In Illinois recently, Masten
said, 25,000 and 15,000 people applied at two Wal-Mart
stores in the Chicago area
But these were regular retail jobs with low-to-average
wages and benefits, not the sort of positions typically in
high demand.

Wal-Mart draws huge crowd - of applicants

reflection on economy
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Monday, November 19, 2007

MIT index shows first drop in commercial property value since '03


Indicates housing woes, credit crunch 'may be spreading'

The value of U.S. commercial real estate owned by big pension funds fell 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to an index produced by the MIT Center for Real Estate.

The drop in the MIT quarterly transaction-based index (TBI) may not only spell the end of a five-year rally that saw commercial property prices effectively double, but it may also signal that weakness in the housing market is spilling over into commercial real estate.

"The fall in our index is the first solid, quantitative evidence that the subprime mortgage debacle, which hit the broader capital markets in August, may be spreading to the commercial property markets," stated MIT Center for Real Estate Director David Geltner.

The TBI decline in the third quarter of 2007 marks its first quarterly downturn since the third quarter of 2003, when prices fell 2.4 percent. The last time prices fell more than in the third quarter of 2007 was in the fourth quarter of 2001 (9/11, recession), when they fell 3.9 percent.

Against a backdrop of more than a year's worth of housing price declines and an international credit crunch that erupted over the summer, analysts have been seeking clues about whether other markets and sectors of the economy--including commercial real estate--would be impacted.

By way of comparison, one widely used barometer of U.S. housing, the Case-Shiller price index for 20 metro areas, peaked in mid-2006 and had fallen by 4.2 percent by August 2007. But in the four quarters since the housing price peak, the TBI showed commercial prices continuing to increase--by almost 20 percent.

The TBI is based on transaction price data from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF). Launched in February 2006 and covering the period since 1984, the index of commercial real estate prices is updated quarterly and published on the Center's website, web.mit.edu/cre.

The TBI is based on transaction prices of properties sold each quarter from the property database that underlies the NCREIF Property Index (NPI), and also makes use of the appraisal information for all of the more than 6,000 NCREIF properties. Such an index--national, quarterly, transaction-based, and by property type--had not been previously constructed prior to MIT's development in 2006. NCREIF encouraged development of the index, citing the need for better tools for research and decision-making in the industry.

The TBI was the first tool released by the Center for Real Estate's new Commercial Real Estate Data Laboratory (CREDL). CREDL, which has added further tools since the TBI, is designed to be "a real go-to site," according to CREDL co-director Henry Pollakowski, comparable to the University of Chicago's Center for research in Security Prices which tracks stock performance.

Another rigorous transactions-based index whose methodology was developed at the MIT/CRE and is now published by Moody's Investor Service (the Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index) is expected to be released shortly for the period through September. Whereas the TBI represents pension funds' sales, the Moody's/REAL Index represents the broader commercial property market and includes a monthly frequency national commercial property index.

MIT index shows first drop in commercial property value since '03

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Consumers ‘Hanging on for Dear Life’

clipped from blogs.wsj.com
Consumers haven’t fallen off of the proverbial cliff, but they appear to be hanging on for dear life… Indeed, the August through October period marks the worst three-month performance for core retail sales since July through September 2002
Richard Moody, Mission Residential
The consumer is facing the twin headwinds associated with high energy costs and a negative wealth effect tied to lower housing prices. One of the keys going forward will be whether the labor market continues to provide sufficient income support to prevent too much of a slide in consumer demand. –Morgan Stanley Research
Looking ahead, the sluggish start to the fourth quarter points to a marked slowdown in consumer spending — and in GDP growth. –David Resler, Nomura Securities
Today’s data supports our view that the holiday shopping season could see one of the weakest gains in spending in years. –Drew Matus, Lehman Brothers
And the full impacts from the rise in energy costs have yet to be seen. –Naroff Economic Advisors
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Why Baseball Players Might Be Underpaid

clipped from blogs.wsj.com
First, a dollar just isn’t what it used to be. When Mr. Rodriguez signed his previous 10-year, $252 million contract in December 2000, the Federal Reserve’s index of the dollar’s value relative to other currencies was over 105. Now it’s barely over 71. I
The dollar’s decline on the currency markets has been more dramatic than overall inflation, but that, too, eats into the value of the greenback. A lump sum of $252 million in 2000 is equivalent to $305.1 million today, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation calculator.
In 2001, the first year of the first Rodriguez mega-contract, major-league players were getting 56% of their sport’s $3.5 billion in revenues.
Yet this year, Jeff Passan notes on Yahoo Sports, players made only about 41% of baseball’s $6 billion in revenue.
What do you think? Are baseball players overpaid or underpaid?
Should more dollar figures in the media be adjusted for inflation?
How much does the weak dollar affect the true value of salaries?
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Monday, November 12, 2007

Putting Fountain of Youth in a Pill

clipped from blogs.wsj.com
Sirtris, the pharma startup that hopes a chemical in red wine will yield a pill to fight some of the effects of aging, lost $9.65 million in the third quarter this year.

As the WSJ reported last year, the company was launched by a Harvard Med School biologist who found that resveratrol, a chemical in red wine, seemed to extend the lives of simple organisms. Its action resembled that of a calorie-restricted diet, which has also been shown to extend life. Given the choice, we’d take the red wine — but, alas, it would take hundreds of glasses a day to get the resveratrol doses used in the studies.

The company’s stock has done well since it went public earlier this year (see chart), but its Q3 loss, announced this morning, was a bit larger than analysts expected, notes Dow Jones Newswires. The market didn’t seem to mind, though — the stock opened up more than 3% from its Friday close.
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Thursday, November 08, 2007

Toy Containing 'Date-Rape' Drug Pulled (Aqua Dots)

clipped from money.aol.com
Millions of Chinese-made toys for children
have been pulled from shelves in North America and Australia after
scientists found they contain a chemical that converts into a
powerful date rape drug when ingested. Two children in the U.S. and
three in Australia were hospitalized after swallowing the beads.
Millions of Aqua Dots art sets were recalled on Nov. 7 after several children in the U.S. and Australia were hospitalized. The toys contain beads coated with a chemical that converts into a powerful date rape drug when ingested.
Scientists say a chemical coating on the beads, when ingested,
metabolizes into the so-called date rape drug gamma hydroxy
butyrate. When eaten, the compound - made from common and easily
available ingredients - can induce unconsciousness, seizures,
drowsiness, coma and death.
The two U.S. children who swallowed Aqua Dot beads went into
nonresponsive comas, commission spokesman Scott Wolfson said
Wednesday afternoon.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Purging the rottenness--Recession

Robert Samuelson,
Recessions also have often-overlooked benefits. They dampen inflation. In weak markets, companies can’t easily raise prices or workers’ wages. Similarly, recessions punish reckless financial speculation and poor corporate investments. Bad bets don’t pay off. These disciplining effects contribute to the economy’s long-term strength, but it seems coldhearted to say so because the initial impact is hurtful.
Andrew Mellon
The ‘leave-it-alone liquidationists’
felt that government must keep its hands off and let the slump liquidate itself. Mr. Mellon had only one formula: ‘Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate’.He held that even panic was not altogether a bad thing. He said: ‘It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people’
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Friday, November 02, 2007

'American Gangster': A Direct Hit


In "American Gangster," time doesn't fly, it explodes.


The thing is 2 1/2 hours long; it feels like 40 minutes.

Drug lord Frank Lucas, played by Denzel Washington, strolls the streets of Harlem in Ridley Scott's film, also starring Russell Crowe as honest cop Richie Roberts.


Whether it's the next great American crime movie or simply this year's professional stunner will be determined over the next few months. For now, it's enough to say that the story of the rise and fall of an African American drug kingpin is relentlessly told by the English director Ridley Scott ("Gladiator," "Black Hawk Down"); it just keeps on coming.


Starring Denzel Washington as Frank Lucas, a beneath-the-radar Harlem heroin impresario who puts together an astonishing organization before anyone notices, and Russell Crowe as Richie Roberts, the Jersey detective who tracks him, the movie has the aspirations of a crime-and-punishment epic, a superb feel for time and milieu and an almost subliminal feel for myth.


Washington is brilliant.
He makes you fear Frank.

Yet he also makes you love Frank.
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Thursday, November 01, 2007

GoldCorp (GG)

Six times your money since 2001 and still going. Each bar equals one month.
clipped from charts.barchart.com
Chart for GOLDCORP INC
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